In 2020 the European Think Tank Network on China (ETNC) examined how European countries were positioning themselves amid the intensifying geopolitical rivalry between the US and China. Five years on, the global and European landscapes have evolved significantly, notably due to the Covid-19 pandemic, Russia’s war in Ukraine, and a disruptive second Trump Administration. As a result, European countries are increasingly compelled to navigate these tensions, which are reshaping global alignments, trade dynamics, and security frameworks. This has injected new dynamism into the ongoing debate on European strategic autonomy, as traditional US allies and partners in Europe reflect on how to constitute themselves as an autonomous strategic actor.

Following the first Trump Administration, the continuation of tensions with China during the Biden presidency further underscored the structural nature of the US-China rivalry. A series of strategic documents –including the National Security Strategy (2022) and the Indo-Pacific Strategy (2022)– confirmed the consensus in Washington that China’s actions undermine US interests across multiple domains. Building on this assessment, the US continues to significantly expand export controls on sensitive and dual-use technologies, aiming to slow China’s progress in critical areas such as semiconductors and AI.

However, while there was some continuity with the first Trump presidency, Biden’s approach placed greater emphasis on working with allies. This shift facilitated renewed transatlantic coordination including through new frameworks such as the EU-US Trade and Technology Council (TTC), launched in June 2021. While the Biden presidency provided a period of relative stability in transatlantic relations, cooperation was not necessarily always smooth, as interests and approaches were not fully aligned. Additionally, points of friction remained, particularly over US industrial policies and its unilateral imposition of export controls on advanced AI chips, including on some European countries. These measures revealed the negative impact of certain US decisions on European interests and underscored the challenges they pose for maintaining European unity.

The 2020 ETNC report observed that Beijing’s growing assertiveness had prompted a reassessment of the EU and its Member States’ approaches towards China. It was released shortly after the publication of EU-China – A Strategic Outlook by the European Commission and the European External Action Service (EEAS), which introduced the tripartite characterisation of China as simultaneously a partner, an economic competitor, and a systemic rival. In the years since, the balance among these three dimensions has shifted markedly. China’s ‘no-limits’ partnership with Russia –signed just before Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and maintained since– has underscored the geopolitical dimension of this rivalry. As a result, the risks associated with growing dependencies on China are increasingly being reappraised. Concerns over the fairness of economic relations also persist. The data collected for this report shows that the trade imbalance between Europe and China has continued to widen over the past five years accompanied by growing scepticism towards Chinese diplomatic initiatives such as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Despite these challenges, some chapters in this report reflect an enduring interest in economic engagement and cooperation with China on global challenges. However, the prevailing mood across Europe is one of caution, shaped not only by worsening tensions with China and the US, but also by a heightened sensitivity to Washington’s expectations and the potential political costs of appearing too closely aligned with Beijing.

In 2020, we argued that neither the EU nor its Member States were equidistant between the two powers. This assessment remains valid despite the inauguration of the new Trump Administration. Most European countries maintain significantly deeper ties with the US across security, economic, and societal dimensions. However, the return of President Donald Trump has added new pressures to Europe’s already delicate strategic positioning, not least because he has directed coercive measures against European countries. Trump has adopted a highly unpredictable approach to China, oscillating between overtures of cooperation and expressions of personal affinity with President Xi Jinping, and aggressive tariff escalations, such as the ones announced in the so-called ‘Liberation Day’ on 2 April 2025. This volatility has heightened European uncertainty not only about the reliability of the US as a partner in managing relations with China, but also on critical issues such as support for Ukraine and the future of the global trade regime, and the entire multilateral agenda.

Against this backdrop, the ETNC has dedicated its 10^th annual report to reassessing how European capitals perceive and respond to the evolving US-China rivalry. Building on our 2020 analysis, this report looks into the approaches of 22 European countries, and the EU, with the aim of identifying the key variables that explain both change and continuity in their positions vis-à-vis the US-China strategic competition. Each chapter is written by China experts who set out to address the same array of questions with respect to their own country:

• What is the state and direction of relations between the country, the US and China?
• How is the country dealing with growing frictions between Washington and China?
• To what extent might changes in political leadership affect the country’s policies toward China and/or the US?