After China’s response, the Philippines stated that the Arbitral Tribunal should be allowed to intervene in the case because it is not build around sovereignty, but on how the parties of UNCLOS are respecting their obligations. Indeed the Philippines’ interpretation was correct because, on 29 October 2015, the Arbitral Tribunal decided that it has the necessary jurisdiction over the case and the fact that China refuses to participate does not stop the Philippines from expressing its points.
Nine months later, on 12 July 2016, the Arbitral Tribunal provided the results of its findings, which were largely favorable to the Philippines. Based on the main points raised by the Philippines, the tribunal concluded that:
1. China didn’t exercise exclusive control over the South China Sea prior to UNCLOS, which makes its argument of “historic rights” in the waters not applicable;
2. the high tide features from the Spratly Islands are rocks and they don’t generate exclusive economic zones or a continental shelf. According to UNCLOS, Article 121 “Regime of islands”, an island is “a naturally formed area of land, surrounded by water, which is above water at high tide” and can generate an exclusive economic zone of 200 nautical miles. On the other hand, the features that are rocks and which cannot “sustain human habitation or economic life on their own” should not generate an exclusive economic zone, but only a territorial sea of 12 nautical miles. After investigating the issue, the tribunal determined that the natural condition of the features suffered modifications and they are dependent on outside resources, making them unable to support themselves.
3. China indeed interfered in the Philippines’ activities, starting from resource exploration and fishing, to the construction of installations and artificial islands by China. The tribunal also stated that, regarding the incident from 2012, the Chinese vessels, by aggressively approaching Filipino ships, put the life of the Filipino fishermen in danger.
4. China continued to build artificial islands in the Spratly, harmed the maritime environment and modified the natural condition of some features during the proceedings, mainly because China refused to consider itself part of the process.
As a predictable reaction, China rejected the tribunal’s decision and even criticized it, especially the part regarding the nine-dash line. President Xi Jinping declared that the ruling will not affect China’s rights and territorial sovereignty in the South China Sea and that his country will take the commitment to resolve any sort of issues through negotiation and taking into account the historical facts and the dispositions of the international law.
Regardless of China’s attitude, the tribunal’s ruling provided important leverage for the Philippines, giving it the opportunity to use it as a means to strengthen its position in the South China Sea. However, the “force” of the tribunal’s decision faded away once Rodrigo Duterte became the president of the Philippines, in 2016.